TradingEdge

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Since 1990, Strategas reports that the average six-month return for the S&P 500 after significant VIX spikes is nearly 12%, with 81% of outcomes being positive.	81
I mentioned before that my target for BTC was 70k+. What we saw then was BTC clip 70k exactly, before correction back to 64k as we have seen this week. Why this happened is because there was a massive institutional short order at 70k. Hence it acted as strong resistnace. Seems normal volatility rn	80
Potentially recessionary numbers on the Jobs numbers. 4.3% unemployment hence the worry from yday continues. Iwm will face pressure on recessionary fears today but we should see more dovish Powell at Jackson hole. Hopefully more rate cuts for iwm to enjoy later. Iwm picture moved fast bc of data.	79
WHAT IMPACT RATE CUTS HAVE ON MARKET DEPENDS ON THE SCENARIO, says BoA. If a soft landing, or if inter meeting cuts, that would be bullish normally. Cuts into a hard landing are bearish. Cuts in any scenario are bullish for bonds.	79
VIX term structure lowering, which implies less volatility, which is bullish. This is as of yday, before BOJ comments. probably even lower now.	77
BOJ comments have helped push markets higher in premarket by releasing some of the carry trade pressure as I mentioned in my earlier post this morning. Positioning has improved as a result. Traders have closed put positions and opened ITM call on SPY and OTM call on QQQ. HERE I COVER ALL POSITIONING	77
Vix positioning. Call delta still there. Need to get below 16 in order for that large put delta at 16 to apply downward pressure to vix. Otherwise not much itm put delta yet so can see vix rise again.Lets see.	76
IWM key analysis - We see the put delta node at 225 and not much above it. This put delta node ITM will create ressitance. ITs also where closing 52 week high is. hence resistance. Above that, I can see an instutional short order on IWM at 228. If we break above that and close, we rip end of.	76
This is what MAX bearishness looks like. No call delta only put. No one wants Semis to catch a bid. Let's see. Keep monitoring. The decreasing Put delta OTM is a sign that maybe the bearishness can be exhausted, but it depends on VIX.	75
VIX positioning. Credit default swaps are now rising. There is increased uncertainty in the economic picture which is showing in bearish pressure in market. Look too at SPY, QQQ positioning. Shows all are under pressure, particularly tech which shows less Call delta ITM (until 440). be Cautious	75

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