/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
People saying im a permabull, I'm not. i jsut understand bulls make more money in long run, and I am happy to hold what's down or average it if I need to. Nonetheless, my job here is to share the data with you, not to tell you what to buy. I have been doing that, with regular positioning updates.
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Educational post on the carry trade risks I will post tomorrow now, as is 3am here and am watching my baby looking at me with wide eyes through the monitor lol. I find it so funny when she does that. like I spend an hour putting her to bed and look t the monitor and she's like nope fuck u im awake.
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DAILY QUANT LEVELS WILL BE BACK SOON. I AM JUST AVOIDING WORKLOAD WHILE ON PATERNITY LEAVE RIGHT NOW. ELSE I GET HEAT FROM THE WIFE THAT I WORK TOO MUCH. lol
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Panic isnt a trait of successful traders. I am giving you the actual data right here, that institutions are looking at. The positioning is weak right now, and there are large insitutional put orders. There is no lie in that. But the data isnt as doom and gloom as traders who are guessing suggest.
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As I mentioned, the market push in last 2 days is because vix has unwound from unprecedented levels to levels more consistent with cdx. There are bullish signs that this will prove a buy the dip. HOWEVER ... (SEE POST)
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FED REVERSE REPO FALLS BELOW $300B for FIRST TIME SINCE 2021. THIS IS BULLISH GUYS. This means that instead of full out QE, which as I mentioned may exacerbate carry trade, Fed is reducing QT. This is increasing liquidity into the market and that = bullish price action. Fed is playing it well.
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Will be uploading my thesis on small caps later today or tomorrow morning. Small caps may not be for everyone, and other areas of the market will surely perform also, but this is my case for why they can be strong performers into year end. There are lots of positive tailwinds for us to consider.
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V COMPREHENSIVE: We saw strong reversal yday, but As I mentioned, Markets will likely remain under pressure until OPEX still. Some fast squeeze bounces like yday, but overall still likely to be pressured. Heres a look at positioning, skew, & the Japanese influence with KEY new data out yday, & more.
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A reminder that no one judges trading performance on a 1 month or 2 month basis. We are here to generate wealth for ourselves and families. Such ambition isn't achieved nor scuppered in 1 month. Im sure in September 2023, traders portfolios were getting fucked, but fast forward 6months as then see.
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The surprise rate hike from Japan, coupled with the Bad news for AAPL and NVDA , which account for 16% of the Nasdaq, is what is driving the sell off in the market, and caused the sharp rise in VIX. But remember that these are not disastrous for US economy and/or earning growth for companies.
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