/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
JP Morgan says Institutions bought the dip while Retail panic-sold aggressively. Luckily the good followers of this page, although retail, knew better than that. Liquidity is key, and liquidity remains high in markets by all metrics, most of which retail don't watch.
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Vix is pumping alot, which is one key risk gage. The other, which is another indicator of true panic and liquidity is rising but surpressed by historical standards. Suggests again a vix driven sell off rather than credit event as many are saying. Still not true panic right now by all accounts
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ALL ABOUT VIX:VIX positioning heavily skwed towards calls. Not much put delta there at all when we look at 40D To Expiration. Can see more upside. however, we note that traders are buying volatility near term but selling long term. Term structure is in backwardation. SEE POST TO KNOW WHA TTHIS MEANS
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V IMPORTANT: More bullish news in premarket guys. The key was the dovish comments from BOJ official, Uchida. He said that BOJ WON’T RAISE RATE WHEN MARKET IS UNSTABLE. Said RECENT VOLATILE STOCK, FX MOVES HAVE EFFECTS. Also said UEDA OPINION ALIGNED WITH HIS. Why this is important:
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A lot of misinformation on NVDA delays. Here I break it down. Semis, MSFT, META will probably be under pressure tomorrow under the news. But it is not a big deal and here's why.
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Later I will talk you guys through what you may have heard about, the carry trade. and what the bear case is rn. There are increasing risks in the market, but the VIX term structure suggests that we likely see VIX eventually unwind for one more rally. But after that, we must be cautious of the risks
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In answer to a question I had, markets sold off yday into close mostly because traders don't want to deal with overnight risk. Uncertainty of what can happen in asia session while us markets are closed. Also the fact that positioning remains pressured. It is normal and happens during uncertainty
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When buying, try to buy names that either 1. are popular companies with iron clad secular tailwinds behind it, like NVDA or NOW. 2. Stocks that have beat and raised at last quarter earnings. 3. Companies that have relative strength vs the overall market. The holy grail is to buy a stock thats all 3.
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Fed are doing a good job on this one by reducing Reverse Repo Facility. This is increasing liquidity to the market and fuelling recovery. it is artificial support for stocks, and will help a lot. This without having to cut rates. I dotn see an emergency rate cut. Its not necessary and will spark ...
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