/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
Reminder that NVDA will be trading at a forward PE of around 18 if it dips below 100 tomorrow. For those who believe in the company long term, thats pretty cheap. Remember Pelosi was buying in July. Are we now doubting the Queen Pelosi after following her trades all year?
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The people that called the top on nvda the whole rally up are now the same people telling you not to buy at 40% discount. Nvda fundamentals are sound. Buy slowly and for ur long term portfolio and it's a no brainer. Buy nvda to hold not trade rn imo.
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My advice is to not TRADE this dip as such, but to use it as an opportunity to add to long term portfolio. At these Forward earnings valuations, thats a no brainer. BUt the volatility/panic is too much to trade for quick in and outs IMO. Bound to get burned unless you are extremely skillful/lucky.
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Bears are using buffet sale of aapl as part of bear thesis. But its a non event. As always, the true clue is in positioning, liquidity and volatility.
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As mentioned sell off is bc of vix run up. Vol funds have had a big impact this year, selling vol for most of it. Now with vix surging, they are forced to sell stocks. Hence inverse relationship between vix and markets. When vix comes down, these funds will stop selling and liquidity will come back.
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BoA say this in a piece im reading, yet also say theres $6T in money markets ready to enter equity markets. Totally contradictory points in terms of outcome lol. The only thing of note in this that I wanted to share was the first 2 lines. Corrections are normal and healthy and happen 3 times a year.
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Remember that the guy on Twitter talking to you about carry trade risks was short on NVDA the whole way up, and generally was 2 years early in his carry trade thesis. Carry trade does hold risks right now, and we must act cautiously, but What matters most is forward earnings. And rn they are cheap.
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Powell's comment yday that "DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT MANDATE ARE REAL NOW" all but confirms rate cuts in September I think. Employment market is weakening rapidly as we see from unemployment rate, even if NFP numbers not showing it. Rate cuts in theory should be supportive most to small caps.
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This is SPY positioning. What do you notice here? Notice that almost all of that put delta is all orange or dark orange? That colour is denoting all the delta for August expiration or September. So what do you think happens after August Expiration/September OPEX when this all expires? 📈📈
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I do not think the Carry trade unwind is behind the current sell off. It may be a factor but if liquidations were the cause, liquidity should be decreasing in the market. Its not. Hence Carry trade not the issue rn. (It can likely be in future months though as unemployment rises)
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