/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
DDOG into earnings. positioning looks bearish. increasing puts OTM as low as 95. Traders are still holding some calls on 120, but these look like hedges, with the main bias to the downside. Traders are buying calls in todays session. lets see. bias looks bearish
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TLT is higher again. Hence bond yields remain udner pressure. Call delta strong up to 100. We see in image 3, its following chart of JPYUSD. As long as JPYUSD remains high, TLT will see upward pressure.
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AUD suffering as a risk off trade, but at todays RBA meeting, RBA struck a hawkish tone and raised their core inflation targets. That would normally be bullish for AUDUSD, but not so with such risk off sentiment in the market atm.
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AAPL positioning. Not often you see AAPL down 8%. The BUffett selling news was always going to scare some bears, but is ultimately not that important. Anwyay, positioning shows strong ITM positioning still (mostly skewed to calls). Traders bearish bets cool off below 200, as we see put delta decline
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IWM skew shows traders are receding their bullish bets for now on recessionary risk. Dow Jones too. QQQ and SPY skew bearish but not so sharply, as positioning was already skewed to downside. The squeeze was cut short and traders move increasingly bearish right now going into jobs numbers.
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Gold looking like a good hedge. As mentioned, skew is also pointing higher. Benefits from safe haven appeal in recessionary scenario, benefits from rate cuts too on weakening dollar. Seems a safe trade more or less.
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Nasdaq trading at key technical level at highs from march. Thats a lot of rally that's just been wiped out. Has to try and hold this level. Traders buying puts on 440. 445 has small support if this technical level breaks on qqq.
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GOOGL bearish positioning ITM of course, but put delta declining signficantly below 150. We see support in around 147-150, should we reach that low.
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V IMPORTANT: More bullish news in premarket guys. The key was the dovish comments from BOJ official, Uchida. He said that BOJ WON’T RAISE RATE WHEN MARKET IS UNSTABLE. Said RECENT VOLATILE STOCK, FX MOVES HAVE EFFECTS. Also said UEDA OPINION ALIGNED WITH HIS. Why this is important:
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