/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
MELI positioning looking v bullish. If we break that put delta at 1800, we probably rip to 1900, since there is little to no put delta ITM between 1800 and 1900.
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Recessionary risk from ISM data yesterday has hurt the positioning on small caps quite signifanclty. This was positoning yday (pic 1). Here today, (pic 2). We see traders have sold ITM calls and bought puts. 210 is a support with call delta there, whcih will be retest. Skew sharply lower. Lets see.
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SMH Positioning. INTC down 20% is weighing on SMH, as is the recessionary risk as semis are cyclical. Semis are going through hard time right now and positioning looks bearish. Teh catalyst of FOMC and NVDA squeeze has been cancelled out by recessionary fear and weak ARM and INTC earnings. 215 suppo
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TSLA - strong support looks at 200 with the call delta there. not much put delta below there. Traders see a bottom there if more downside. ITM positioning below that is strong. 210 is the samller support above that, with call delta there. If we break below 210, we probably see near 200. 220 resistan
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Later I will talk you guys through what you may have heard about, the carry trade. and what the bear case is rn. There are increasing risks in the market, but the VIX term structure suggests that we likely see VIX eventually unwind for one more rally. But after that, we must be cautious of the risks
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DIA: next support down looks at 395, with signficant call delta there. LEt's see. 400 now a strong resistance.
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Panic isnt a trait of successful traders. I am giving you the actual data right here, that institutions are looking at. The positioning is weak right now, and there are large insitutional put orders. There is no lie in that. But the data isnt as doom and gloom as traders who are guessing suggest.
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XLU green. GLD down comparatively less than rest of the market. market seeking the risk off trade right now.
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the Nasdsaq McCellan Oscillator. Basically shows breadth of companies. I put more priority on the positioning analysis I do which suggests markets remain under pressure for now, but we do see that the NAMO has got to very low levels. This suggests that soon we probably get some type of relief.
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When buying, try to buy names that either 1. are popular companies with iron clad secular tailwinds behind it, like NVDA or NOW. 2. Stocks that have beat and raised at last quarter earnings. 3. Companies that have relative strength vs the overall market. The holy grail is to buy a stock thats all 3.
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