/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
Rising money supply and falling 10 year bond yields concurrently during a market sell off is often a bullish sign for a strong reversal. Lets see.
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Smci down 13% in AH. As mentioned, positioning and skew was bearish into earnings. Preaaure was to downside. Was a sign that traders were expecting a weak print.
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ALL ABOUT VIX:VIX positioning heavily skwed towards calls. Not much put delta there at all when we look at 40D To Expiration. Can see more upside. however, we note that traders are buying volatility near term but selling long term. Term structure is in backwardation. SEE POST TO KNOW WHA TTHIS MEANS
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WHAT IMPACT RATE CUTS HAVE ON MARKET DEPENDS ON THE SCENARIO, says BoA. If a soft landing, or if inter meeting cuts, that would be bullish normally. Cuts into a hard landing are bearish. Cuts in any scenario are bullish for bonds.
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Vix is pumping alot, which is one key risk gage. The other, which is another indicator of true panic and liquidity is rising but surpressed by historical standards. Suggests again a vix driven sell off rather than credit event as many are saying. Still not true panic right now by all accounts
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V IMPORTANT: More bullish news in premarket guys. The key was the dovish comments from BOJ official, Uchida. He said that BOJ WON’T RAISE RATE WHEN MARKET IS UNSTABLE. Said RECENT VOLATILE STOCK, FX MOVES HAVE EFFECTS. Also said UEDA OPINION ALIGNED WITH HIS. Why this is important:
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Bears are using buffet sale of aapl as part of bear thesis. But its a non event. As always, the true clue is in positioning, liquidity and volatility.
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V IMPORTANT: More bullish news in premarket guys. The key was the dovish comments from BOJ official, Uchida. He said that BOJ WON’T RAISE RATE WHEN MARKET IS UNSTABLE. Said RECENT VOLATILE STOCK, FX MOVES HAVE EFFECTS. Also said UEDA OPINION ALIGNED WITH HIS. Why this is important:
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V COMPREHENSIVE: We saw strong reversal yday, but As I mentioned, Markets will likely remain under pressure until OPEX still. Some fast squeeze bounces like yday, but overall still likely to be pressured. Heres a look at positioning, skew, & the Japanese influence with KEY new data out yday, & more.
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