/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
WHAT IMPACT RATE CUTS HAVE ON MARKET DEPENDS ON THE SCENARIO, says BoA. If a soft landing, or if inter meeting cuts, that would be bullish normally. Cuts into a hard landing are bearish. Cuts in any scenario are bullish for bonds.
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A lot of misinformation on NVDA delays. Here I break it down. Semis, MSFT, META will probably be under pressure tomorrow under the news. But it is not a big deal and here's why.
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Positioning on JPY now shows that it has shifted to net long, after being very short. This very rapid unwinding of the v v short positioning before and after BOJ cut is what led to the RAPID sharp increase in JPY. It was a short squeeze. With short positioning lower, the rapid move should be...
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WHAT IMPACT RATE CUTS HAVE ON MARKET DEPENDS ON THE SCENARIO, says BoA. If a soft landing, or if inter meeting cuts, that would be bullish normally. Cuts into a hard landing are bearish. Cuts in any scenario are bullish for bonds.
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Vix is pumping alot, which is one key risk gage. The other, which is another indicator of true panic and liquidity is rising but surpressed by historical standards. Suggests again a vix driven sell off rather than credit event as many are saying. Still not true panic right now by all accounts
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Invesrse IWM vs credit spreads, as mapped on Tradingview. We see tight correlation. As credit spreads tighten, IWM does well. As they widen, IWM falls down. Real time credit spread data (pic 2) shows credit spreads tightening after BOJ comments. This should help IWM, barring more recessionary data
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Vix is pumping alot, which is one key risk gage. The other, which is another indicator of true panic and liquidity is rising but surpressed by historical standards. Suggests again a vix driven sell off rather than credit event as many are saying. Still not true panic right now by all accounts
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ALL ABOUT VIX: Why VIX term structure being in backwardation means we probably rip again soon after VIX starts to come down.
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V COMPREHENSIVE: We saw strong reversal yday, but As I mentioned, Markets will likely remain under pressure until OPEX still. Some fast squeeze bounces like yday, but overall still likely to be pressured. Heres a look at positioning, skew, & the Japanese influence with KEY new data out yday, & more.
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