/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
Positioning on JPY now shows that it has shifted to net long, after being very short. This very rapid unwinding of the v v short positioning before and after BOJ cut is what led to the RAPID sharp increase in JPY. It was a short squeeze. With short positioning lower, the rapid move should be...
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Since 1990, Strategas reports that the average six-month return for the S&P 500 after significant VIX spikes is nearly 12%, with 81% of outcomes being positive.
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I mentioned before that my target for BTC was 70k+. What we saw then was BTC clip 70k exactly, before correction back to 64k as we have seen this week. Why this happened is because there was a massive institutional short order at 70k. Hence it acted as strong resistnace. Seems normal volatility rn
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WHAT IMPACT RATE CUTS HAVE ON MARKET DEPENDS ON THE SCENARIO, says BoA. If a soft landing, or if inter meeting cuts, that would be bullish normally. Cuts into a hard landing are bearish. Cuts in any scenario are bullish for bonds.
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Potentially recessionary numbers on the Jobs numbers. 4.3% unemployment hence the worry from yday continues. Iwm will face pressure on recessionary fears today but we should see more dovish Powell at Jackson hole. Hopefully more rate cuts for iwm to enjoy later. Iwm picture moved fast bc of data.
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BOJ comments have helped push markets higher in premarket by releasing some of the carry trade pressure as I mentioned in my earlier post this morning. Positioning has improved as a result. Traders have closed put positions and opened ITM call on SPY and OTM call on QQQ. HERE I COVER ALL POSITIONING
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VIX term structure lowering, which implies less volatility, which is bullish. This is as of yday, before BOJ comments. probably even lower now.
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IWM key analysis - We see the put delta node at 225 and not much above it. This put delta node ITM will create ressitance. ITs also where closing 52 week high is. hence resistance. Above that, I can see an instutional short order on IWM at 228. If we break above that and close, we rip end of.
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Vix positioning. Call delta still there. Need to get below 16 in order for that large put delta at 16 to apply downward pressure to vix. Otherwise not much itm put delta yet so can see vix rise again.Lets see.
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