/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
MMs keep NVDA above 90, bouncing form 90.6 as expected. (For now) 100 is proving the resistance, as expected.
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With Iran likely to attack Israel by Monday according to US and Israeli sources, and with pressure on Big tech, we can expect VIX to continue to move higher near term. Positioning skewed to calls. But backwardation in term structure shows traders are still betting on vix crush over time.
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AAPL positioning bullish going into earnings. Skew is flat, hence no real indication on sentiment from that. Analysts are bullish on Apple Intelligence shortening the replacement cycle. Let's see.
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Micron Technology Resumes Stock Repurchase Program To Offset Dilution From Employee Stock Purchase Programs. Companies increasing repurchasing. Buyback blackout ending.
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ECB'S REHN SAYS RECENT MARKET SWINGS ARE AN OVERREACTION. SAYS US ECONOMY REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG. ECB'S REHN: WE'RE STILL MONITORING OVERALL ECONOMIC SITUATION.
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CREDIT SPREADS STARTING TO TICK LOWER THIS MORNING, AFTER BOJ COMMENTS. AS mentioned, Liquidity is still plenty in the market. Yesterday FED reduced teh Reverse Repo Facility. Once Credit spreads & VIX start to normalise, we will see the strong push. August OPEX will release bearish positioning too.
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Iran say they are no longer lookin to escalate in Israel. market called this one well as we didnt see any uptake in oil markets. this was a sign they didnt buy the tensions risk. at least thats one less thing for markets to worry about rn.
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INCLUDES ALL SPY, Nasdaq, Dow positioning & Technicals. All showing a lot of downward pressure. Skew for Each is bearish on 1 month term which shows traders are not yet looking for bounce. Vix should cool later but for now must be realistic and say markets continue to look pressured. Play accordingl
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We see that market positioning is now v bearish on tech, and SPY and increasingly seeing a shift in momentum in IWM and Dow. With positioning like this, if you are going long with short term duration, you are fighting the pressure and relying on a squeeze to get your position up. This needs catalyst
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AMZN . not a tremendous amount of call delta ITM so positioning is still bearish. MMs will try to get price back above 160. Put delta declines below 160, and almost dries up below 150. Traders see limited downside below there for now. 170 put delta strong and is resistance for now.
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