/u/TearRepresentative56's posts
Smci down 13% in AH. As mentioned, positioning and skew was bearish into earnings. Preaaure was to downside. Was a sign that traders were expecting a weak print.
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Jpn225 (nikkei) up 6% on the BOJ comments. These comments are the key news in premarket today. If boj doesn't want to tighten, the Carry trade pressure will start to unwind. Nikkei sees relief, soon so will US tech.
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Many are hoping that Fed rate cuts as an emergency measure can help the market to recover from here. We may see strong immediate recovery as a result, as it will likely help the VIX to cool off, but going forwrd, may not be as bullish as many hope. It can exaccerbate the carry trade weakness.
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VIX continuing to fall to 26 suggests fear from yesterdays strong scare is now starting to subside. Markets repsonding well to the declining VIX. We needed VIX to decline to free up more liquidity. Its clear Fed is helpign to provide liquidity too. All bullish. After August OPEX we see acceleration.
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NVDA will see a lot of volume today on INtel earnings as well as the wider market sell off. Positioning shows a lot of call delta ITM at 100, which should make it supportive there. MM will try to keep price above there. Not much Put delta OTM below 100 so id suggest that near bottoming.
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I dont often post analysis of other people, but here is TOm Lee's take on the market. Tom Lee is a supposed permabull as well (people say) but has a v strong hit rate. I think he understands like me, that this is about the VIX. We need to see VIx come down. carry trade is contributing but Vix is key
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AMZN earnings reaction looks harsh in truth as CEO pointed to clear reacceleration in AWS growth. They are taking market share. The CAPEX icnrease is what fucekd them. market doesnt like that right now. Positioning shows support on 160-163 and not much put delta beliow that for now.
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Bitcoin in distribution mode (bearish for now). Got rejected at 70k by big institutional sell order, then being dragged by deteriorating positioning and macro picture. Bito positioning shows puts building on 19. Weak itm positioning.
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Fridays jobs report showed unemployment rate jump to 4.3% and NFP fall to 114k. Whilst the trend to jobs market is undoubtedly weak, (and worrying), this probably overstated the near term softness, due to Hurricane Beryl impact. Probably sets up a normalising August print which will relieve pressure
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AMD bouncing from a key trendline here on weekly chart. Positioning shows pressure from ITM puts. Will remain under pressure, but call delta at 125 is strong support. Lines up with the trendline. MM should try to keep price above 125. Break below 125 shows no support till 110, but isnt base case.
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